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Published: October 28, 2008

“If the election were held today”

Polls vary dramatically on how voters feel about Proposition 4

Two polls released within 24 hours of each other last week show a huge difference in voter support for Proposition 4, the family notification before a minor’s abortion initiative. While both polls show the measure ahead, one puts the lead at 19 percentage points, the other at only 2 percentage points.

The first poll, commissioned by the Knights of Columbus, was conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion between Sept. 28 and October 5 and released on Oct. 22. “The initiative holds a 19 percentage point lead among likely voters, 52% to 33%,” said a Knights of Columbus press release.

“The survey shows that Proposition 4 has majority support among women (55% to 31%), Latinos (61% to 27%), those who are married (59% to 25%) and those age 45 or older (55% to 28%),” the release noted. “The initiative also leads among men (49% to 34%). Those opposed include likely voters 18 to 29 years old (52% to 41%). The poll also shows that Proposition 4 leads by double digits in every region of California except the Bay Area, where a plurality of 48% is opposed.”

Pollsters for the Marist Institute interviewed 1,008 registered voters by telephone, of whom 772 were categorized as “likely voters.” Participants were asked: “There will be a number of propositions on the ballot this November. Proposition 4 is the ‘Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor’s Pregnancy’ Initiative. It would prohibit abortions for minors under the age of 18 until 48 hours after a physician notifies the minor’s parent, legal guardian, or adult family member. It provides for exceptions in a medical emergency. If the election were being held today, would you vote Yes or No on Proposition 4?”

The following morning, the Public Policy Institute of California released a poll of 2,004 “adult residents” (1,186 likely voters) it conducted between Oct. 12 and Oct. 19. The PPIC poll painted a starkly different picture of voter sentiment on Proposition 4 – 46% in favor, 44% opposed and 10% “don’t know.”

PPIC pollsters phrased the question this way: “Proposition 4 is called the ‘Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor’s Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It changes the California Constitution, prohibiting abortion for unemancipated minor until 48 hours after physician notifies minor’s parent, legal guardian, or in limited cases, substitute adult relative. It provides an exception for medical emergency or parental waiver. Fiscal impact is potential unknown net state costs of several million dollars annually for health and social services programs, court administration, and state health agency administration combined. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 4?”

Noted PPIC researchers: “Support has continued to fall short of a majority (47% August; 48% September; 46% today) and the margin of support has declined slightly since last month... Proposition 4 divides Democrats (54% no) and Republicans (61% yes) along party lines, while independents are more opposed than in favor (43% yes, 51% no). Similarly, a majority of likely voters who consider themselves to be politically liberal are opposed (62%), while self-described conservatives are in favor (63%), and moderates are divided (48% yes, 42% no). Since last month, support has declined slightly among parents (51% to 46% today), Latinos (54% to 50%), and whites (48% to 44%). Across regions, likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area are opposed (56%), while about half in Los Angeles (52%), the Central Valley (52%), and the Other Southern California region (51%) are in favor.”

The PPIC reported that the margin of error “for the total sample” was plus or minus 2%, and for the “likely voters” sample, plus or minus 3%. The Marist Institute put its margin of error at plus or minus 3.1%.

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